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The preparation of this website and its content are supported by the European Union Programme for Employment and Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).

This programme is implemented by the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implementation of the objectives of the European Union in the employment, social affairs and equal opportunities area, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Europe 2020 Strategy goals in these fields.

The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appropriate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.


For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/progress

 

Microsimulation

In recent years an increasing number of microsimulation models have been developed worldwide for analysing and forecasting pension processes. With macrosimulation (cohort) models one can forecast the macroeconomic processes, while microsimulation models are generally considered as supplementary tools. In principle, the former models are based on macroeconomic projections. Therefore, with these models one can forecast the revenues, expenditures and other overall indicators (e.g. number of beneficiaries, average amount of benefits etc.).

In contrast, with microsimulation models one can also project personal careers based on sophisticated statistical methods. Hence, with this type of model one can also forecast the impacts of the processes on various social groups, not only on the whole society (e.g. impacts of measures on low and high earners, on singles and families etc.). With these models one can also forecast different statistical distributions (e.g. income distribution of the population).

The Central Administration of National Pension Insurance in Hungary has commenced the development of a new microsimulation model named MIDAS_HU. This model belongs to the MIDAS model family, whose principal and leading model, MIDAS_BE has been developed in Belgium. Obviously, the starting point of the Hungarian model is solely based on the Hungarian social environment.

The European Union has supported the development of MIDAS_HU. Duration of the project “Acceleration of the development of the Hungarian pension microsimulation model based on administrative data” (Ref. no. VS/2013/0132) was from 1 June 2013 to 31 May 2015.

  

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Olle Sundberg: SESIM microsimulation model